Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
